2013 Outdoor Season

Discussion in 'Track & Field' started by jacknyc, Feb 16, 2013.

  1. jacknyc

    jacknyc Master

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    Richard Kilty 10.23 (1.4w) today.
     
  2. jacknyc

    jacknyc Master

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    All I am saying is that I do not see a sub-10 coming from Reus. Other than his 10.09 last year, I don't believe he's ever run faster than 10.20. (correct me if I'm wrong). And the 10.20 he ran last week came with a lot of wind. The week before he ran 10.32 with no wind.
    To me, this is not a guy knocking on the door of sub-10. Not even close really.
    You know I always wish our guys the best, but perhaps I am more of a realist and less of a dreamer. ;)

    Anyway, it would be boring if we all agreed on everything!
     
  3. lactatking

    lactatking Guru

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    German Sprinter

    Julian Reus ran 10,32 at Dessau last week; the weather conditions were very bad (it was very cold and it was raining the whole day). (Verena Sailer ran with track pants (?) )
    He was beaten by Lucas Jakubczyk 10,29. Martin Keller ran 10,33.
    Here you can find the video:

    http://www.leichtathletik.tv/

    I think, Lucas Jakubczyk has the better max. velocity.
    Lucas has changed his sprinting technique this year. Although he is 28 years old, he has the best chances.
    His first 50m are to slow ... like Christophe Lemaitre ... that's the problem.

    http://www.leichtathletik.de/index.php?NavID=1&SiteID=28&NewsID=43399
     
  4. RAUL

    RAUL Guru

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    Honestly i dont see Reus running under 10.1 this season.Not even close to sub 10,this is my opinion, he ran a 10.20 on 1.6 wind i think at his peak he can't be faster than a tenth of second than that.Tumi i think has more chance to crack 10 seconds,he ran 10.19 in his first race on 0 wind,i think a high 10 is verry possible this year....Only time and another race will tell us if this will be possible!
     
  5. jacknyc

    jacknyc Master

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    Going into this season I would rate the top white 100m sprinters as follows:

    1/ Adam Gemeli
    2/ Christophe Lemaitre
    3/ Michael Tumi

    I rate Gemeli above Lemaitre because he is still improving, while Christophe is declining (in the 100m).
    Of course Gemeli hasn't raced yet this season, so it remains to be seen if his improvement will continue.

    Tumi is the logical pick for #3 based on his indoor season, and his first race of the outdoor season.

    After these 3, it's really just a crap shoot. Any number of guys could step up.
    For awhile it looked like it might be Marek Niit of Estonia, but he has fallen off as quickly as he rose up.
    Rytis Sakalauskas looked good for a season and then fell off. Perhaps the Slovakian Zavacky will be continue to improve to become #4.
    So let's see!
     
  6. white lightning

    white lightning Hall of Famer Staff Member

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    Ok guys. I'm on an island all by myself but I will again defend Julian Reus. He was a world junior medalist. Then he was hit with a mirage of health problems which resulted in him missing 3- 4 years of his early 20's. I posted an article about this around a half year ago. They couldn't figure out what was wrong with the kid and he almost gave up athletics for good. Reus was more worried about just having a normal healthy life and he couldn't even imagine ever running again. Finally they got his healthy back on track after years of him being inactive. Despite all of the time off he quickly picked up where he left off. Who is to say that he wouldn't have already cracked the 10 second barrier?

    My point being is that last year was his first full season back in a very long time and he ran a wind legal 10.09 with almost no wind! That is damn impressive if you ask me. Then he has great speed endurance to go with his great starting ability. Yes I know it's still very hard to break the barrier but he is by far one of the guys with a shot to do it. I see him getting faster over both the 100 and 200 meters. Both of his personal bests should go down easily this summer barring an injury. The question will be how close to 10 seconds can he get or can he dip under the mark with a perferct race in perfect conditions.

    You guys need to give this kid some more respect. You don't just get lucky and run a 10.09 with little wind unless you have a hell of alot of talent!
     
  7. white lightning

    white lightning Hall of Famer Staff Member

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    I'm also very excited about Richard Kilty and his potential to get closer to 10. He is also a solid 200 man like Gemeli and that should help his chances. He ran the 10.23 yesteday and that was his third or fouth race in around two weeks. He has been around the globe and he has to be very jet lagged. Kilty has alot of natural talent. I just don't really like his coach Linford Christie. I wish he was with someone else. Either way I wish him the best of luck as his season is off to a very good start!
     
  8. lactatking

    lactatking Guru

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    German Sprinter

    Next race of Julian Reus, Martin Keller and Lucas Jakubzcyk:
    Saturday 08.06. Regensburg

    The weather conditions will be clearly better ....
     
  9. Bk21

    Bk21 Guru

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  10. jacknyc

    jacknyc Master

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    10.29 today for Tumi against top flight competition.
    Very disappointing. Maybe it was nerves, but he still shouldn't be this slow.
    Let's see what he does in his next race and we can make a better determination about what his season might bring.
     
  11. white lightning

    white lightning Hall of Famer Staff Member

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    It could be nerves and or it could be his lack of speed endurance which I touched on a few days ago. His lack of any type of even an average 200 ability will hurt him over the last 30-40 meters of a 100 meters race. No one can run all out for 100 meters. We know that for a fact but the guys with the best speed endurance stay more relaxed and they stay at top speed a little longer. Therefore they slow down later than their opponents since they stay relaxed longer which helps them to carry their speed though to the finish line more efficiently.

    Remember Morne Nagel. The guy could run a 60 meters in a time of 6.48 - 6.51 all day long in his prime. Yet he never broke a 10.13 in the 100 meters. He lack of speed endurance hurt him although he was a far better 200 man than Tumi.

    On the bright side. Tumi has beaten his previous 100 meter personal best twice this season. For running a horrible race, he is at least in the 10.20's range. He will learn from this. Work on that speed endurance Mike. It will pay dividends later this summer!
     
  12. jacknyc

    jacknyc Master

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    10.27 today for Tumi. That follows his 10.29 from a few days ago. He is definitely not 'there' yet. Now I'll be happy if he breaks 10.15 this season.
    Reus ran another 10.3X today, so he is not going to get anywhere near 10-flat this season.
    No sign of Guliyev at an international meet in Istanbul today.... and Gemili still hasn't raced yet this season.
    All in all, a bit depressing.
    Maybe Lemaitre can brighten things a bit tomorrow in Morocco.
     
  13. jacknyc

    jacknyc Master

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    Gemili opens his season with a 10.28.
    I can't get excited about any of our sprinters right now....
     
  14. white lightning

    white lightning Hall of Famer Staff Member

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    Brandon Byram ran a 20.50's time. I saw it on one of the track boards. Overall the results have been dismal.
     
  15. jacknyc

    jacknyc Master

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    Lemaitre runs in a few hrs time in Morocco. I assume the weather is hot which generally leads to faster times. Justin Gaitlin is in the race so Lemaitre is obviously running for 2nd along with Kim Collins.
    He beat Collins over 150m in England, but they were about dead even at 100m. So let's see what Christophe can do. I expect around 10.10 given the conditions and competition, but not sure that he can get below 10.05.

    Meanwhile, Jeremy Wariner is also racing against LaShwan Merritt and some of other top 400m runners. I'm always hoping that Wariner will make a break through to his old form, but he's let me down year after year. Anyway I'm still hoping, and this race should give us an idea as to what to expect from him for the rest of the season.
    Fingers crossed for both guys!
     
  16. white lightning

    white lightning Hall of Famer Staff Member

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    I had a link to the meet in Germany yesterday but I haven't been able to find one for the meet in Morraco.

    If anyone has a link so we can watch Lemaitre race live, please p.m. me or post the link. Thanks guys.


    I predict a 10.03 for Christophe and I say Wariner runs around 44.95 aprox.
     
  17. jacknyc

    jacknyc Master

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    9.98 for Lemaitre and he beat Gaitlin.
    I must I am shocked but very happy!
     
  18. jacknyc

    jacknyc Master

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    The World T&F Championships are in Moscow in 2 months.
    Yet Russia, the largest country in Europe, doesn't have a single male sprinter in the European top 30.
    They seem have to turned off the pipeline of male sprinters altogether.
    What a waste of talent!
     
  19. jacknyc

    jacknyc Master

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    I'm glad to report that Brian Gregan, the young 400m sprinter from Ireland, won a race in Spain yesterday with a new personal best (PB) of 45.53.
    Otherwise the 400m has been a bit quiet this year from our guys.
     
  20. jacknyc

    jacknyc Master

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    10.09w (2.3w) for Adam Gemili today.
    His 2nd race of the year, as far as I know. Not bad.
    Gemili and Lemaitre are the only good sprinters right now.
     
  21. white lightning

    white lightning Hall of Famer Staff Member

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    Kevin Borlee ran a very solid 20.56 yesterday. Nice to see him starting to return to form.

    Denis Dimitrov who is only 19 of Bulgaria ran a wind legal 10.16 for a new Nat'l record!
     
  22. jacknyc

    jacknyc Master

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    Sergio Ruiz of Spain (don't recall hearing of him before) set a NR of 20.51 yesterday. Glad to see there are some new names to watch for.
     
  23. jacknyc

    jacknyc Master

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    Gemili followed up his 100m yesterday, with a 20.30 (0.8w) 200m today. Good time!
     
  24. white lightning

    white lightning Hall of Famer Staff Member

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    I had never heard of Sergio Ruiz of Spain either. What a way to make your name known. Solid time.

    Gemeli is just a great all around sprinter and it comes natural to him. It reminds me of Wariner in his prime
    and how he made running look effortless. Great show by Adam and I would be a little disappointed if he didn't
    get a sub 10 this summer. Either way he is just a baby so he has a decade plus of years to show his stuff.
     
  25. trackster

    trackster Mentor

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    A few good hs results from the weekend.

    1) Wesley Frazier is making headlines, as a kind of Mary Cain-lite. She won the 5k, the 2mile, and the mile at the New Balance nationals this weekend. No one could touch her--but Mary wasn't there.

    2) Speaking of not there, I don't believe Sant or Cunliffe ran at the New Balance. However, the pipeline of young female talent just keeps getting better. Remember the name Kate Hall of Maine. She's only a sophomore yet finished fourth nationally. Here she is winning her heat. Her times have been consistently brilliant for her age: Kate Hall added another feather in her cap, as she became the first Maine HS girl to earn All-American honors in a sprint event, Hall finished 4th in the 100m final running 11.74. She showed tremdous consistency in the championship season, as her last few 100m races have been 11.68, 11.82, 12.15,11.73, 11.69,11.81,11.74.

    3) John Crossley made headlines winning the 800m in a superb 1:48 (one of the ten fastest hs times ever). It wasn't just the time, but the way he did it, running the second lap far faster than the first (almost unheard of in the 800). Speculation is that he can go much faster. Check out the video and look for the guy making the ridiculous move on the final backstretch (he comes from waaaay back and passes everyone)
     

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