Predict Danny Woodhead's 2011 Production

Discussion in 'New England Patriots' started by ToughJ.Riggins, May 17, 2011.

?

Predict Woody's carry and YPC totals:

  1. 75-100 carries at a 4.0-4.9 YPC rate

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. 75-100 carries at a 5.0-5.7 YPC rate

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  3. 75-100 carries at a 5.8 YPC+ rate

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  4. 100-125 carries at a 4.0-4.9 YPC rate

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  5. 100-125 carries at a 5.0-5.7 YPC rate

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  6. 100-125 carries at a 5.8 YPC+ rate

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  7. 125-175 carries at a 4.0-4.9 YPC rate

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  8. 125-175 carries at a 5.0-5.7 YPC rate

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  9. 125-175 carries at a 5.8 YPC+ rate

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  10. More carries than listed choices...Please list YPC

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. ToughJ.Riggins

    ToughJ.Riggins Hall of Famer

    Joined:
    Nov 19, 2006
    Messages:
    5,063
    Location:
    Ontario Canada
    This should be fun: Danny Woodhead is in an ideal situation with the Patriots to be a brilliantly efficient back. He gets opportunities to make guys miss in space with his burst, speed and agility. I agree with snow that Woodhead is more like Marshall Faulk than Kevin Faulk.

    If I was going to compare Jake Sharp to a player I'd compare his running and receiving skills to Leon Washington. It would be nice if the Patriots found room for Sharp on their roster to back up Woodhead and Vereen as a scatback. Kevin Faulk might return for one more year, but it looks like Sammy Morris and Fred Taylor are not returning and Faulk will be retiring in the near future.

    With Lawfirm and Ridley as the powerbacks, the Pats could still use Sharp for RB depth (as the 6th RB kept on the roster this year and just carry 5 RBs next year). Sharp could than work his way up the depth chart if he outperforms others. I hope it happens, but I'm not holding my breath.
    Edited by: ToughJ.Riggins
     
  2. ToughJ.Riggins

    ToughJ.Riggins Hall of Famer

    Joined:
    Nov 19, 2006
    Messages:
    5,063
    Location:
    Ontario Canada
    I'm predicting 151 carries for 894 rush yards at a 5.9 YPC clip with 7 rush TDs. I'm predicting 45 catches for 457 yards with a 10.2 YPC average with 3 TDs! I predict 1351 yards from scrimmage!
     
  3. DixieDestroyer

    DixieDestroyer Hall of Famer

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2007
    Messages:
    9,464
    Location:
    Dixieland
    I'd like to see Danny get a good mix of carries and receptions with double digit TDs. He certainly has the skill & potential, so he just needs the reps (therein lies the big question).
     
  4. celticdb15

    celticdb15 Hall of Famer

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2007
    Messages:
    8,469
    I hope Vereen is a flop or is injury ladden. IDC, if some think its bad to wish injury onto a player, Woodhead needs all the opportunities he can get. The NFL needs more diversityat the RB position.[​IMG]
     
  5. Westside

    Westside Hall of Famer

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2008
    Messages:
    7,650
    Location:
    So Cal
    I see Danny getting the very similar stats as last year. I hope he gets more, but to accomplish similar numbers is still great, and hopefully at critical moments of a successful PAT season.
     
  6. mattharper

    mattharper Guru

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2011
    Messages:
    318
    Celtic you took the words right out of my mouth. I just dont understand why the Pats. drafted Shane Vereen when they have Woodhead. Green-Ellis and Woodhead were awesome last year. I hope Woodhead gets 15 carries a game but Im not holding my breath.
     
  7. Colonel_Reb

    Colonel_Reb Hall of Famer

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2005
    Messages:
    13,987
    Location:
    The Deep South
    Danny had 97 carries for 547 (5.6YPC) and 5 TDs on the ground last year. I think his touches go up a bit this year, but not by much. He stays below 125 carries and will keep his YPC above 5 but less than 5.6. He'll get more TDs, but probably less than 10. I hope I'm off and he gets more than that in both categories, but having watched Belichick for a while, I don't think he'll take too many away from Green-Ellis. I hope I'm wrong.

    Edited by: Colonel_Reb
     
  8. chris8812

    chris8812 Newbie

    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2010
    Messages:
    58
    123 Carries 640 Yards 5.2 YPC 10 Rush TD
    44 Receptions 560 Yards 7 Receiving TD

    A slight up tick in his touches will increase his production. And his use in more RZ situations will lead to more TD's. But he is going to be game planned against this up coming year, to put up anything over a 4.5+YPC is elite. He will continue his effectiveness, but see a slight drop in YPC. But I think with his increased familiarity in the Patriot offense, and with the Patriots staff game planning with him. I expect him to excel in the passing game. And to increase his averages there.
    BB will never incorporate a single "work horse" back to his squad. Woodhead will shine, but in New England he will never see more then 10-13 touches per game. Edited by: chris8812
     
  9. chris8812

    chris8812 Newbie

    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2010
    Messages:
    58
    Although if what happened in the playoffs is an indication of what they think he can do. If the Pats fed him the ball that those rates he would be at. 224 Carries If his YPC was to drop all the way to 4.5 he would still surpass the 1,000 YD mark. He would get 96 catches, and if he maintained his 11.1 YPR he would also top the 1,000 YD receiving. If he keeps up scoring at the same rate as last year he will score about 12 rushing TD's and about 3 receiving TD's.
     
  10. backrow

    backrow Hall of Famer

    Joined:
    Oct 23, 2005
    Messages:
    6,858
    Location:
    Spain
    i would love for him to break enough long runs to put him close to a 1000! now imagine that... one can dream! realistically, probably again around 100 carries for just below 600 yards, 5 rushing TDs and maybe another 4-5 receiving ones.
     
  11. ToughJ.Riggins

    ToughJ.Riggins Hall of Famer

    Joined:
    Nov 19, 2006
    Messages:
    5,063
    Location:
    Ontario Canada
    You have to remember though guys, that Woodhead only played in 14 games for the Pats last year and only had three carries week 3 against Buffalo where he broke a 22 yard TD run in his first game. Also, he was taken out after two carries in the final game when he got a little dazed from a big hit. I expect to see him average 9 or 10 carries a game. There were just three weeks where he had less than seven carries after week 3 before his minor injury in week 17. Against a stout Viking D he had six carries, against the best rush defense in the league- Pittsburgh- he had four carries- and he had just two carries against his former team (who also have a good rush defense, as he was used more as a receiving threat that game where he broke 100 yards). I'm very confident he gets at least 100 carries and best case scenario, however unlikely, he could get around 200.Edited by: ToughJ.Riggins
     
  12. bigunreal

    bigunreal Mentor

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2004
    Messages:
    1,923
    I think you guys are being far too optimistic, although I certainly hope you're right. The Patriots chose to use two second round picks on running backs. Now if they were white RBs, we know that teams don't mind simply never giving them a chance to play (see Hester, Leonard, etc.) However, when one of the two returning backs from the previous season is white, and that team chooses to target the position he plays two times in the second round....

    Based on what he did last season, Wooodhead's role should be expanded. They ought to be talking about new ways to get the ball in his hands, to get him more touches. I haven't heard anything like that coming from the Patriots, and their draft picks hardly inspire one to think they have tremendous confidence in Danny.

    I really hope I'm wrong, but I could quite easily see Danny be turned into a special teams demon, with a very limited role on offense. Edited by: bigunreal
     
  13. ToughJ.Riggins

    ToughJ.Riggins Hall of Famer

    Joined:
    Nov 19, 2006
    Messages:
    5,063
    Location:
    Ontario Canada
    bigunreal, you have to remember though that Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris are likely both not going to be back with NE this year. Kevin Faulk may come back for just one more year. The Pats needed to replace two or three RB roster spots real soon so that they will have 5 or 6 RBs on their roster to play FB and tailback in their BACK BY COMMITTEE offense.

    big, the Pats drafted a black back in round two and the other was in round THREE. The round three back, Steven Ridley, is a powerback and NOT a threat to Woodhead's Faulk role carries, but Vereen could end up being one. I'm hoping that if Vereen is used this year, it will be at the expense of Lawfirm instead of Woodhead in a NE dual scatback attack with Woodhead. You never know what BB is going to do- and Lawfirm could end up with another team in a year or two via trade or free agency.

    Also remember how popular Hillis and Woodhead have been with fans when you look at the Madden Cover vote. It won't be so easy for coaches to reduce these amazing and popular player's roles!
     
  14. whiteathlete33

    whiteathlete33 Hall of Famer

    Joined:
    Mar 18, 2007
    Messages:
    12,669
    Location:
    New Jersey
    Vereen is a slightly larger, less explosive back than Woodhead. I sure hope he doesn't cut into Danny's carries.
     
  15. snow

    snow Mentor

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 2010
    Messages:
    920
    It doesn't matter where they were picked with the Patriots, he drafted Taylor Price in the top rounds and he had a total of 3 catches last year. They have more picks than they know what to do with. Vereen is like a poor man's Woodhead, extremely poor. He is bigger but I don't think he has more power when he runs. The biggest edge Woodhead has is pass blocking. Vereen wasn't that good of a pass blocker in college, with a regular NFL season I doubt he gets it down even close to Woodhead's level, with the lockout it is going to be even harder. Thats pretty much the crucial part in being a 3rd down back.

    Technically TJR, he didn't have a great day running against the Jets, but that 50 yard play was pretty much a toss play, I thought it went lateral, if Brady were under center running the same play then it wouldve been counted as a rush for Woodhead. I predict 150 to 200 touches for Woodhead, hard to tell how many will be rushes and how many will be receptions, but I believe he will crack 1,000 yards from scrimmage.

    Bellicheck wants to make sure he can run the ball in the playoffs, behind Woodhead and Lawfirm he has no depth without the draft picks. It was a really weak class of backs so if he had waited any longer he wouldn't even have quality depth, unless he picked up Chase Reynolds as an UDFA. Ridley is nothing but a short yardage back. I would probably think Bellicheck's mind is thinking Lawfirm's production is a fluke year, and for his skillset that is probably right, if anything the carries he got last year will be split up. Like Lawfirm, Ridley isn't a factor in the passing game as well. 2nd and 3rd round backs wind up being nothing more than depth all the time. Only a 3 2nd round picks have won the feature back jobs off the top of my head, and 2 of those played in the C-USA which probably dropped them.

    I think Woodhead will average in the high 5's. On another team he could get over 6. The Patriots have great blocking, but they are a primarily a pass blocking line. Jamaal Charles was lucky to have to be in the scheme he had, they were more run oriented and would often line up an extra tackle, meaning more chances for a gap to open up for him, his ypc jumped from 5.9 to 6.4. He is an elite back but I put Woodhead right up there with him, as a runner he won't reach his full potential as a rusher on the Pats but he will come close. Its hard to run out of shotgun, multiple receiver sets, you have to have really good agility to get consistent gains (luckily he has elite agility), and once you hit the 2nd level, its not one man to beat and homefree like in run heavy offenses where the defenders get sucked in close to the los, he has to make multiple men miss in the open field, I just don't see anybody on the Pats doing better than Woodhead with that. Vereen ran mostly out of the I formation last year, with a lead blocker.

    The versatility he adds in shotgun, you don't know if its run or pass, he can pass block like a 250 pound back, he can run and catch, it keeps defenses off guard. Its really hard to find a guy to do what Woodhead can do, most passing teams don't have a guy like Woodhead, look at the Colts, they struggle to run.

    Bellicheck isn't stupid, he knows Woodhead is a crucial part of his offense, but he also wants to make sure he can run some version of it if he goes down, the same with Welker, crucial part to the offense, but he has a guy that can be plugged in if he goes down, now Edelman can't do the same things as Welker, but they can make do. Kevin Faulk always got touches no matter who was on the team (I think the lowest was like 70 to 80 touches) and he isn't half the runner that Woodhead is. So I think you can forget about him winding up just as a special teams demon.

    So my prediction is 112 rushes 650 yards 6 tds, 48 catches for 504 yards 2 touchdowns
    with season long of 68 coming against the Chiefs. Its going to be a showdown when they play the Chiefs, the difference is, Bellicheck WILL find a way to stop Charles, Weiss used to work for him and will find a way to shut it down.

    as far as Sharp, thats unlikely. If he ever got a chance I would rather it be on the Colts.

    Edited by: snow
     
  16. dwid

    dwid Hall of Famer

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2008
    Messages:
    4,227
    Location:
    Louisiana
    more optimistic prediction - 225 rushes 1372 yards 7 tds 59 catches 680 yards 3 tds - thats 2052 yards from scrimmage

    I don't know how many times its been done or if its been done but I predict he will have a postseason game where he has 100 yards rushing and 100 receiving, preferably against the Jets.Edited by: dwid
     

Share This Page